The Toys R Us Flagship On Thanksgiving Was Totally Nuts

NEW YORK -- It’s a frigid Thanksgiving Day in Manhattan’s Times Square. Each week, the tourist mecca attracts millions eager to take in the flashing lights. But today’s not about taking selfies in front of billboards. It’s about a shopping frenzy.

Workers mill about outside the entrance of the Toys R Us flagship store. The 110,000-square-foot space is being prepped for its 5 p.m. opening. A line snakes away from the front door, hugging the wall around the block. Here, corralled behind Toys R Us-branded barricades, shoppers wait to be part of the first wave. Most of them are wearing red and white Santa hats, given to them by Toys R Us employees to add more holiday flair.

Elvin Alvarado, a 21-year-old New Yorker who works at a wine shop, struggles to stay warm in the 37-degree chill. His hoodie just doesn’t cut it. But he’s still cheerful, fulfilling what’s become an annual tradition for him. Alvarado has braved the stampede at Toys R Us for the past five years, all in the name of saving money. It’s just worth it, he says.

“Every little bit counts,” says Alvarado, who plans to spend up to $500 on gifts for his nieces and nephews. “Saving a dollar or two goes a long way.”

Shoppers line up outside the Toys R Us flagship store in Times Square.

The clock strikes five, and the doors open to cheers from the crowd. The shoppers shuffle forward and into a media funnel, where cameras from local news stations record the mass of people prepared to unleash themselves on the array of toys. Quickly, the store fills up. Upwards of 2,000 customers will end up scampering through the store for the Thanksgiving launch, Toys R Us spokeswoman Linda Connors told The Huffington Post. "This is just the kickoff for us, however, as we will offer great deals every day now through Christmas," she said.

“The line goes around the corner. It’ll take about 20 minutes to get everybody in,” explains a event staff worker at the door, handing out candy canes and repeating the refrain to each inquisitive pedestrian. “Are you closed?” asks one little girl. “No,” the worker responds pleasantly. “We’re open, we just have this line so no one gets hurt.”

Inside, right up front, children and their parents ride a Ferris wheel, a backwards R emblazoned on the side for all to see. Upstairs, kids gawk at the animatronic T-Rex from Jurassic Park roaring at them. RC helicopters and planes hover above, flown by the many demonstrators scattered about the sales floor. People pose with a giant statue of a minion from "Despicable Me." A tall Lego Statue of Liberty looms over its section, watching over the many boxes of building blocks beneath it. Shoppers congregate under signs of brand names, snagging the toys they want: Transformers, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Skylanders. The Toys R Us feels as much a theme park as a store.

Shoppers browse the toys at Toys R Us on Thanksgiving.

The assault has begun on the "Frozen" merchandise. Toys from Disney’s mega movie franchise are the hottest of the year among girls, dethroning longtime favorite Barbie, according to a survey from the National Retail Federation. In fact, the "Frozen" goodies are situated near the life-size Barbie dollhouse and alongside Barbie toys.

Customers race to snag Anna and Elsa jewelry sets, Anna and Elsa sparkle slippers, Olaf tea sets, Kristoff figurines and all kinds of "Frozen" dolls. A man struggles to reach an Anna’s Frozen Adventure set atop the display and almost knocks one off, but saves it before it can come crashing down to the floor. Then, a bunch of Elsa and Anna dolls go tumbling as a store worker scurries to replace items snatched away by the amped-up customers. She mutters something under her breath and picks up the fallen items.

She, and the others working inside the store, still have quite the grind ahead of them. It's been an hour since the flagship, and other Toys R Us stores across the country, have opened -- and they'll be open for another 29 straight hours. This is just the beginning.

This post has been updated to include a comment from Toys R Us

The Toys R Us Flagship On Thanksgiving Was Totally Nuts

NEW YORK -- It’s a frigid Thanksgiving Day in Manhattan’s Times Square. Each week, the tourist mecca attracts millions eager to take in the flashing lights. But today’s not about taking selfies in front of billboards. It’s about a shopping frenzy.

Workers mill about outside the entrance of the Toys R Us flagship store. The 110,000-square-foot space is being prepped for its 5 p.m. opening. A line snakes away from the front door, hugging the wall around the block. Here, corralled behind Toys R Us-branded barricades, shoppers wait to be part of the first wave. Most of them are wearing red and white Santa hats, given to them by Toys R Us employees to add more holiday flair.

Elvin Alvarado, a 21-year-old New Yorker who works at a wine shop, struggles to stay warm in the 37-degree chill. His hoodie just doesn’t cut it. But he’s still cheerful, fulfilling what’s become an annual tradition for him. Alvarado has braved the stampede at Toys R Us for the past five years, all in the name of saving money. It’s just worth it, he says.

“Every little bit counts,” says Alvarado, who plans to spend up to $500 on gifts for his nieces and nephews. “Saving a dollar or two goes a long way.”

Shoppers line up outside the Toys R Us flagship store in Times Square.

The clock strikes five, and the doors open to cheers from the crowd. The shoppers shuffle forward and into a media funnel, where cameras from local news stations record the mass of people prepared to unleash themselves on the array of toys. Quickly, the store fills up. Upwards of 2,000 customers will end up scampering through the store for the Thanksgiving launch, Toys R Us spokeswoman Linda Connors told The Huffington Post. "This is just the kickoff for us, however, as we will offer great deals every day now through Christmas," she said.

“The line goes around the corner. It’ll take about 20 minutes to get everybody in,” explains a event staff worker at the door, handing out candy canes and repeating the refrain to each inquisitive pedestrian. “Are you closed?” asks one little girl. “No,” the worker responds pleasantly. “We’re open, we just have this line so no one gets hurt.”

Inside, right up front, children and their parents ride a Ferris wheel, a backwards R emblazoned on the side for all to see. Upstairs, kids gawk at the animatronic T-Rex from Jurassic Park roaring at them. RC helicopters and planes hover above, flown by the many demonstrators scattered about the sales floor. People pose with a giant statue of a minion from "Despicable Me." A tall Lego Statue of Liberty looms over its section, watching over the many boxes of building blocks beneath it. Shoppers congregate under signs of brand names, snagging the toys they want: Transformers, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Skylanders. The Toys R Us feels as much a theme park as a store.

Shoppers browse the toys at Toys R Us on Thanksgiving.

The assault has begun on the "Frozen" merchandise. Toys from Disney’s mega movie franchise are the hottest of the year among girls, dethroning longtime favorite Barbie, according to a survey from the National Retail Federation. In fact, the "Frozen" goodies are situated near the life-size Barbie dollhouse and alongside Barbie toys.

Customers race to snag Anna and Elsa jewelry sets, Anna and Elsa sparkle slippers, Olaf tea sets, Kristoff figurines and all kinds of "Frozen" dolls. A man struggles to reach an Anna’s Frozen Adventure set atop the display and almost knocks one off, but saves it before it can come crashing down to the floor. Then, a bunch of Elsa and Anna dolls go tumbling as a store worker scurries to replace items snatched away by the amped-up customers. She mutters something under her breath and picks up the fallen items.

She, and the others working inside the store, still have quite the grind ahead of them. It's been an hour since the flagship, and other Toys R Us stores across the country, have opened -- and they'll be open for another 29 straight hours. This is just the beginning.

This post has been updated to include a comment from Toys R Us

Buick Dealership Offers A Free Car -- And A Lesson In The Derivatives Market

Bill Kay Buick GMC is promising a complete refund to anyone who buys a new car on Friday or Saturday if it snows more than 6 inches on Christmas Day in Chicago.

"No one has ever done this in the car business before," Karl Regalado, Bill Kay's general manager, told The Huffington Post. "It's legit. A lot of people think it's a scam."

It's not a scam; it's a derivatives contract.

(Bill Kay Buick GMC)

For two days only, your new Buick comes with what is essentially a weather derivatives contract. Typically the only people dealing in weather derivatives are investment banks and insurance companies with teams dedicated to betting on things like hurricane and flood risk.

For example, to offset its risk of paying out millions of dollars to homeowners in case of a hurricane, an insurance company will set up a derivatives contract with an investment bank. The bank agrees to pay out some amount of money in case the storm actually does hit. If the storm misses land, the bank wins. If the storm hits, the insurance company loses less.

At Bill Kay Buick GMC, the deal is more simple: If it snows 6 inches or more on Christmas at Chicago's O'Hare Airport, you get your money back. And really, Bill Kay means that quite literally -- 2 inches on Dec. 24 and 5 inches on the 25th without melting won't cut it. A half-foot of snow has to fall from midnight to 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 25. If that doesn't happen, you keep your car for the price you paid. That's risky, so Bill Kay bought insurance from a company called HCC that specializes in financially protecting companies and people from odd things, like the chance that a professional athlete's career will be cut short by injury.

Regardless of what happens, Bill Kay gets some publicity (this post included, you're welcome!). That insurance should have been pretty cheap -- a little more than $10,000 based on my estimate. The fair price to insure the dealership's expected $1 million in sales is less than 1 percent of $1 million, but for the sake of round numbers, let's assume it's $10,000, plus a bit more because the insurance company is being conservative and tacks on a fee. Still, the total cost the dealership paid to the insurance company is probably less than $12,500. That's the equivalent of a 10 percent discount on five $25,000 Buicks.

So Bill Kay's Buick GMC, the only weather-derivatives-dealing car dealership in America, is doing something pretty smart: Offloading its entire refund risk to its insurance company at a price that's cheaper than a run-of-the-mill sale to which no one (myself and the Tribune included) would have paid much attention.

That's because, based on historical data, the chance of Chicago getting 6 inches of snow on Christmas is less than 1 percent. Chicago is a cold, snowy city, but heavy snowfall happens infrequently, as you can see from this chart. Snow days of 3 inches or more are the dark blue lines occurring around 2 percent frequency in December:

The record Christmas Day snowfall in Chicago, according to the state's climatologist, was 2.5 inches in 1965.

According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, from 1981 to 2011, it snowed 5 inches or more in December an average of just 0.3 days. That's just 1 percent of the days. It's not enough snow to trigger the free-car deal, and it includes the entire month of December. The odds of big snow days are the same in January, which is useful. The dealership and its insurer don't need to worry about a more-frequent early January storm happening in late December.

Bill Kay has already seen the deal's payoff. It has "been a great media blitz in the last 24 hours or so," Regalado said. And things will only get better, he says, if they give away cars on Christmas.

"No matter how many cars we sell, whether it's 40, 50, 60 or 70, this is a win, win, win. If it snows 6 inches on Christmas, everyone is going to know who we are."

Where To Get The Biggest Black Friday Discounts This Year

If you want to find the most heavily discounted items on Black Friday, head to J.C. Penney.

According to a recent survey by consumer finance site WalletHub, J.C. Penney's average discount for Black Friday sale items will be as much as 65 percent, more than any other retailer.

WalletHub examined Black Friday discounts at 22 of the largest U.S. retailers and then compared the 5,525 total deals listed in their Black Friday ad books to calculate the average discount at each store. The more expensive a discounted item was, the greater weight it was given when reaching a total average across all products that were marked down. In other words, retailers got more credit for giving greater discounts to higher-ticket items.

"We’re confident that we have some of the lowest prices on popular gifts this holiday season," a J.C. Penney spokesperson told The Huffington Post in an email.

Here are the results of WalletHub's survey:

Certain shopping categories are prone to bigger discounts, according to WalletHub's survey. Jewelry has the biggest discounts among the retailers surveyed, with average discounts of 58 percent. Books, movies and music average 52-percent discounts.

The average American shopper is expected to spend $804.42 on holiday shopping this year, up from $767.27 last year, according to the National Retail Federation. Nationwide, that'll come out to about $616.9 billion spent during the 2014 holiday season, an increase of about 4 percent compared to last year.

Walmart Workers Launch Black Friday Strike

WASHINGTON -- Kicking off the third consecutive year of protests, Walmart workers in six states have formally submitted strike notices to their bosses ahead of the Black Friday shopping frenzy, calling for higher wages and better hours, according to OUR Walmart, the group representing the workers.

OUR Walmart did not provide an estimate on how many workers planned to take part in the strikes this year. It did, however, say that workers in Wisconsin, Louisiana, Florida, California, Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C., have already delivered notices, and it anticipates workers in Illinois, Minnesota, Texas and Pennsylvania will do so as well.

Charles Brown, an OUR Walmart member who unloads trucks at a Walmart in Newport News, Virginia, said he plans to miss three shifts this week to take part in the demonstrations. Brown said he joined the group in September to demand a greater say in scheduling as well as "more respect" from management.

"Some [other workers] may want to do a strike as well but are hesitant," said Brown, 27. "They need to know they don't have anything to be afraid of. If we don't stand up, no one else is going to stand up for us."

Black Friday has become an annual rallying cry for the anti-Walmart crowd, with labor activists and other progressives pillorying the world's largest retailer over its wages and scheduling practices for store employees. It also marks the most contentious week of the year between the Arkansas-based retail giant and OUR Walmart, which is backed by the United Food and Commercial Workers, a union that's been working to organize Walmart employees for years.

Walmart has downplayed the significance of the strikes in years past, noting that they involve just a tiny fraction of the retailer's one-million-plus U.S. workforce, and painted them as union-orchestrated stunts. OUR Walmart tends to put the number of strikers in the hundreds each year, while Walmart puts it more in the dozens.

"Perception is not reality in this case," said Brooke Buchanan, a Walmart spokeswoman. "Year after year we see the labor union and paid organizers promising they'll be out in force. And every year, we see a handful of people at a handful of stores."

Noting that Walmart workers get a holiday bonus, Buchanan also threw this barb at OUR Walmart and UFCW: "Are they going to pay their workers double time for working the holiday?" A union spokeswoman said all employees are salaried and work "as needed," meaning there is no bonus.

The sight of Walmart workers going on strike in the past two years has provided a shot in the arm to the labor movement, even if the numbers aren't large enough to impact sales. Like the fast-food walkouts that have popped up in cities across the country, the Walmart strikes aren't necessarily meant to disrupt the company's operations, but instead to draw attention to the participants' grievances.

This year, the group's members are making a specific demand in the protests: a wage of $15 and "consistent, full-time hours." Not coincidentally, $15 per hour is the same demand being put forth by the fast food strikers, whose movement is billed as Fight for $15 and who are backed by the Service Employees International Union.

OUR Walmart members have also been calling for an end to what they describe as retaliation from management for speaking out.

Since the strikes began in 2012, UFCW has filed a host of unfair labor practice charges against Walmart with the National Labor Relations Board, some of which the board's general counsel found merit in, some of which it did not. The general counsel issued a complaint in January alleging that Walmart had illegally punished workers in several states surrounding the strikes. That case has not yet been resolved.

OUR Walmart, in turn, has faced a number of court injunctions barring its members from protesting on Walmart property in certain states due to trespassing.

Many of the protests have focused on a lack of stable hours for workers, who say they don't get enough time on the schedule in order to make ends meet. Walmart says that a majority of its workforce is full-time, though it doesn't provide an exact percentage. The company recently launched a program aimed at giving more hours to the workers who need them, though it insisted the program was not a response to the protests.

Glova Scott, an employee at a Walmart in Washington, D.C., said she has already called in to her store and told them she won't be coming in this week. Scott said she's been working for Walmart for a little over a year but just joined OUR Walmart a week and a half ago. Fifty-nine years old, she earns $10.90 an hour stocking shelves on the night shift.

"It's hard. We work in an atmosphere where the pay doesn't make ends meet, and a lot of my co-workers think the solution is to look for another job rather than try to improve conditions," said Scott. "I joined because I wanted to be part of a movement. I'm looking forward to going back to work and encouraging my co-workers to join me."

You're More Likely To Inherit Your Dad's Social Status Than His Height

Social mobility is a myth.

That is the depressing conclusion -- or, if you're already part of the social elite, the great news -- of a new study by economists Gregory Clark of the University of California, Davis, and Neil Cummins of the London School of Economics. The hope that we can claw our way up from our low station to someplace fancier is a delusion for most of us, according to this study. We inherit social status from our parents just as much as, if not more than, our physical traits.

And this social status often persists across many, many generations. The title of the study -- "Surnames and Social Mobility in England, 1170–2012" -- gives you some idea of just how many generations we're talking about here: 28 generations of 30 years each. The study looked at centuries of data on the social statuses of English families. It found that many of the families who were socially elite landowners in 1170 -- your Montgomerys, Nevilles, and Percys -- were still socially elite in 2012.

"Strong forces of familial culture, social connections, and genetics must connect the generations," the authors wrote. "There really are quasi-physical 'Laws of Inheritance.'"

The study used attendance at Oxford and Cambridge Universities ("Oxbridge") as a proxy for high social status; typically only elite students go to those schools. Across generations, the "correlation coefficient" -- a number that shows the strength of the correlation between two things, with a 0 meaning not correlated at all and 1 meaning perfect positive correlation -- was between 0.7 and 0.9 for generations of the same family going to Oxbridge. In comparison, the correlation coefficient for height between generations is just 0.64, according to one study cited by the researchers.

Hang on, you might be saying, isn't England notorious for low social mobility? Isn't it the land of Downton Abbey-style snooty inherited wealth? Sure. But guess what? The United States is really not much better. A 2013 study by Miles Corak of the University of Ottawa found that the U.K. and U.S. were two of the least socially mobile countries in the developed world. Here's a chart that puts this in perspective:

Note that, according to Corak's study, low levels of social mobility -- meaning it's hard to move from one social level to a higher one -- are also associated with high levels of income inequality.

This is the kind of world that French economist Thomas Piketty warns could become increasingly common -- one in which inherited wealth just keeps growing while incomes stagnate. It's the sort of the world we're living in today, come to think of it.

Most worryingly, the Clark-Cummins study found that social mobility hasn't really improved significantly in recent decades, despite social programs aimed at boosting it, such as higher tax rates on wealth and programs to help lower-class students get into Oxbridge.

Maybe we just haven't given such programs enough time to work, though. And given the many economic risks created by widening inequality, we shouldn't stop trying to boost social mobility.

A Quarter Of Uninsured Say They Can't Afford To Buy Coverage

This story was originally published by Kaiser Health News.

Just days before the health law’s marketplaces reopened, nearly a quarter of uninsured said they expect to remain without coverage because they did not think it would be affordable, according to a poll released Friday.

That was by far the most common reason given by people who expect to stay uninsured next year, according to the latest tracking poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation. (KHN is an editorially independent program of the foundation.) Forty-one percent of individuals without health insurance said they expected they would remain uninsured, while about half said they plan to get coverage in the coming months.

The law includes subsidies to reduce premium costs and cost-sharing assistance for those who qualify, although it was not clear if the uninsured knew that.

Despite heavy news coverage and marketing from insurers about the re-opening of enrollment, about 9 in 10 of the uninsured said they didn’t know when the health law’s open enrollment period began (Nov. 15). That was similar to the findings in last month’s Kaiser poll.

More than 8 in 10 of the uninsured said it is at least somewhat important to them to have health insurance, with 62 percent saying it’s very important. Seven in 10 said health insurance is something they need.

Other findings in Kaiser’s November poll include that most of the public reports their families have not been directly impacted by the health law, with more (24 percent) saying they have been hurt than helped (16 percent).

Forty-six percent of those surveyed hold an unfavorable view of the law and 37 percent view it favorably, a slight change from last month’s survey, where 43 percent of those questioned held an unfavorable view of the law and 36 percent a favorable one.

With the midterm elections giving Republicans control of the Senate and increasing the party’s majority in the House of Representatives, Americans were divided about whether the debate between the two parties over the health law would increase, the poll found. Forty-seven percent expected it, while 42 percent predicted it would stay at about the same level.

This KHN story can be republished for free (details).
There’s a variety of opinion about what Congress should do next with the health law. Twenty-nine percent of the public supports the law’s repeal, 17 percent favors scaling the law back, 20 percent wants the law to move ahead as is, while 22 percent chooses expanding the law.

Republicans are more likely to favor repeal (52 percent) or scaling it back (24 percent), while Democrats are more likely to favor moving ahead with the law in its current form (40 percent) or expansion (34 percent). Independents fall in between, but lean toward repeal or scaling back.

The poll was conducted from Nov. 5 through 13, using a telephone sample of 1,501 adults. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points for the full sample and +/- 9 percentage points for the uninsured.

maryagnesc@kff.org | @MaryAgnesCarey

Kaiser Health News (KHN) is a nonprofit national health policy news service.

Global Cost Of Obesity Rises To $2 Trillion A Year

LONDON (AP) — The global cost of obesity has risen to $2 trillion annually — nearly as much as smoking or the combined impact of armed violence, war and terrorism, according to a new report released Thursday.

The McKinsey Global Institute consulting firm's report focused on the economics of obesity, putting it among the top three social programs generated by human beings. It puts its impact at 2.8 percent of global gross domestic product.

"Obesity isn't just a health issue," one of the report's authors, Richard Dobbs, said in a podcast. "But it's a major economic and business challenge."

The company says 2.1 billion people — about 30 percent of the global population— are overweight or obese and that about 15 percent of health care costs in developed economies are driven by it.

In emerging markets, as countries get richer, the rate of obesity rises to the same level as that found in more developed countries. The report offers the stark prediction that nearly half the world's adult population will be overweight or obese by 2030 should present trends continue.

"We are on an unfortunate trajectory," Dobbs told The Associated Press. "We have to act."

The report's authors argue that efforts to deal with obesity have been piecemeal until now, and that a systemic response is needed.

McKinsey says there's no single or simple solution to the problem, but global disagreement on how to move forward is hurting progress. The analysis is meant to offer a starting point on the elements of a possible strategy.

"We see our work on a potential program to address obesity as the equivalent of the maps used by 16th-century navigators," McKinsey said in its report. "Some islands were missing and some continents misshapen in these maps, but they were still helpful to the sailors of that era."

A Quarter Of Uninsured Say They Can't Afford To Buy Coverage

This story was originally published by Kaiser Health News.

Just days before the health law’s marketplaces reopened, nearly a quarter of uninsured said they expect to remain without coverage because they did not think it would be affordable, according to a poll released Friday.

That was by far the most common reason given by people who expect to stay uninsured next year, according to the latest tracking poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation. (KHN is an editorially independent program of the foundation.) Forty-one percent of individuals without health insurance said they expected they would remain uninsured, while about half said they plan to get coverage in the coming months.

The law includes subsidies to reduce premium costs and cost-sharing assistance for those who qualify, although it was not clear if the uninsured knew that.

Despite heavy news coverage and marketing from insurers about the re-opening of enrollment, about 9 in 10 of the uninsured said they didn’t know when the health law’s open enrollment period began (Nov. 15). That was similar to the findings in last month’s Kaiser poll.

More than 8 in 10 of the uninsured said it is at least somewhat important to them to have health insurance, with 62 percent saying it’s very important. Seven in 10 said health insurance is something they need.

Other findings in Kaiser’s November poll include that most of the public reports their families have not been directly impacted by the health law, with more (24 percent) saying they have been hurt than helped (16 percent).

Forty-six percent of those surveyed hold an unfavorable view of the law and 37 percent view it favorably, a slight change from last month’s survey, where 43 percent of those questioned held an unfavorable view of the law and 36 percent a favorable one.

With the midterm elections giving Republicans control of the Senate and increasing the party’s majority in the House of Representatives, Americans were divided about whether the debate between the two parties over the health law would increase, the poll found. Forty-seven percent expected it, while 42 percent predicted it would stay at about the same level.

This KHN story can be republished for free (details).
There’s a variety of opinion about what Congress should do next with the health law. Twenty-nine percent of the public supports the law’s repeal, 17 percent favors scaling the law back, 20 percent wants the law to move ahead as is, while 22 percent chooses expanding the law.

Republicans are more likely to favor repeal (52 percent) or scaling it back (24 percent), while Democrats are more likely to favor moving ahead with the law in its current form (40 percent) or expansion (34 percent). Independents fall in between, but lean toward repeal or scaling back.

The poll was conducted from Nov. 5 through 13, using a telephone sample of 1,501 adults. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points for the full sample and +/- 9 percentage points for the uninsured.

maryagnesc@kff.org | @MaryAgnesCarey

Kaiser Health News (KHN) is a nonprofit national health policy news service.

Obamacare Penalty Could Cost More Than You Expect

Considering going without health insurance next year? Be careful -- it could cost more than you think.

As you’ve probably heard, Obamacare requires most U.S. residents to obtain some form of health coverage, either from a job, a private insurance company or a government program like Medicaid.

Failing to do so could mean taking a hit on your taxes. There’s been a lot of attention paid to the $95 tax penalty for people who are uninsured this year. But in reality, few people will pay that little, and high-income households could owe thousands of dollars when they file their 2014 taxes. Plus, the minimum penalty more than triples for the 2015 tax year.

Don’t expect to hear much about the mandate during the big enrollment push under way. Although the individual mandate is a critical part of Obamacare, it’s politically toxic. Plus, focusing on the positive benefits of the law has proven more effective at increasing enrollment -- and decreasing the number of people who’d be penalized -- than emphasizing the negative parts of it, said Anne Filipic, president of Enroll America, a nonprofit promoting Obamacare sign-ups.

“We are continuing to lead with the facts about what’s available to consumers, and especially the message about financial assistance,” Filipic said. “We want to be careful not to talk about it in a threatening way.” Information about the mandate and penalties will be secondary, and the group plans to emphasize it closer to the February deadline to use the the health insurance exchanges to sign up for coverage that will be in effect next year, she said.

An April Enroll America survey found that the mandate motivated some people who signed up during the first Obamacare enrollment period, which ended in April. Nineteen percent said they wouldn’t have enrolled without it, and another 21 percent said they weren’t sure if the would have.

Still, President Barack Obama’s administration believes promoting the subsidies available to low- and middle-income families and emphasizing the cut-off date is a better way to boost sign-ups. “Our primary focus is going to be on affordability and deadlines. That’s what we know really works and drives people,” a senior administration official told The Huffington Post.

But the individual mandate is a big and complex change in the law, and taxpayers need to understand how it affects them. That’s especially true now. Enrollment on the Affordable Care Act’s health insurance exchanges began Saturday and runs through Feb. 15. Except under special circumstances, like having a baby, consumers who want to use these online marketplaces will have to sign up now or wait until next year to get for private insurance. (However, there’s no deadline for Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program applications.)

Considering an estimated 87 percent of Americans already have health coverage and the slew of exemptions from the individual mandate, not many people actually will owe penalties if they aren’t covered. For those who do owe, the penalty will likely cost less than health insurance -- but they'll be exposed to potentially unlimited expenses in the event of a serious injury or illness.

The individual mandate penalty is calculated as the greater of either a set dollar amount or a percentage of income, and it varies from $95 to about $11,000.

To protect lower-income families from big expenses, and to more strongly push higher-income people to get covered rather than pay the extra taxes, there are two methods for figuring out the penalty. You would pay either as a set dollar amount per person -- $95 per adult and $47.50 per child, up to $285 this year -- or a percentage of household income, whichever is higher.

For the 2014 tax year, higher-income people who are uninsured probably would wind up paying 1 percent of their taxable income minus $10,000 to $22,400, depending on family size and other factors. That could be as much as $11,000, which is the maximum possible penalty, and is based on the national average price for a "bronze" insurance plan available on the Obamacare exchanges.

The minimum penalties get a lot higher next year. They start out at $325 per adult and $162.50 per child, up to a maximum of $975 per household, or 2 percent of household income (after subtracting that $10,000 or more), whichever is more. The maximum penalty for 2015 will be about the same as the maximum penalty for 2014.

A family of four with an income of three times the federal poverty level -- about $70,650 -- would owe around $500 this year, and more than double that in 2015, according to a calculator created by the Tax Policy Center.

People who owe these penalties will see them deducted from their income tax refunds or added to their tax bills. Unlike other taxes owed, though, not paying isn’t a crime, and the IRS can’t garnish the wages or put liens on the property of people who don’t pay it.

Plus, there are a whole lot of exemptions from the individual mandate.

They include if you earn too little to file federal income taxes or if the cheapest plan you can find costs more than 8 percent of your income. People with religious objections to insurance also don’t have to get covered. Undocumented immigrants aren’t allowed to use the Obamacare exchanges, so they also don’t have to comply with the individual mandate. People who live in states that didn't adopt Obamacare’s expansion of Medicaid are exempt if they would have qualified for the program. What’s more, there’s a “hardship” exemption the federal government has defined very broadly.

Obamacare includes the individual mandate as a way to nudge people into health coverage and discourage “free riders” who use health services when they could afford insurance. Being insured for at least nine months a year fulfills the mandate.

Obamacare’s authors call it the “individual shared responsibility provision.” As the theory goes, a health insurance market that’s open to everyone, including those with pre-existing conditions, must include as many people as possible, especially those who don’t have high medical bills and will pay into the pool without drawing down much. As healthy people age or become unlucky enough to get sick, this is supposed guarantee there’s a health insurance system in place to take care of them.

In addition, more people covered means fewer people getting treated at emergency rooms and not paying the bills, which costs taxpayers billions in the form of special Medicare and Medicaid funding that goes to hospitals treating large numbers of people who can’t afford the care they received. So people either get covered, or pay the penalty to offset the costs they incur when they get sick.

“Those who can afford health care but choose to go without are required to make a payment to help cover their medical costs and keep coverage affordable for others,” the Treasury spokesperson wrote.

Sam Stein contributed reporting.

The Latest Frivolous Attack On Obamacare

Last week the court shocked many observers by saying that it was willing to hear a case claiming that the wording of one clause in the Affordable Care Act sets drastic limits on subsidies to Americans who buy health insurance.

Read the whole story at The New York Times

Abercrombie & Fitch Sales Plummet

NEW YORK (AP) — Abercrombie & Fitch is still having trouble getting teens to buy its clothing.

Sales fell by more than expected in September and October as fewer people headed to the mall and shoppers shunned clothing with the retailer's logo on it. Abercrombie & Fitch also reported weaker sales at its European stores, especially at its Hollister brand.

Shares slid in late morning trading Friday, touching a two-year low.

The New Albany, Ohio-based retailer has been trying to win customers back by removing logos from its clothing. It's also cutting expenses and closing some of its stores.

Abercrombie & Fitch expects adjusted third-quarter earnings of between 40 cents per share and 42 cents per share. Analysts expected 68 cents per share, according to FactSet. The company will report full results on Dec. 3.

Revenue fell 12 percent to $911.4 million in the quarter that ended on Nov. 1, below analysts' estimate of $982.4 million.

Sales at stores open at least a year fell 10 percent in the period — down 7 percent in the U.S. and down 15 percent internationally. The metric is a key indicator of a retailer's health, as it excludes potentially distorting results from stores that recently opened or closed.

Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch Co. fell $4.59, or 13 percent, to $30.80 in late morning trading. They bottomed at $30.31 earlier Friday, the lowest point since 2012.

San Francisco Votes To Raise Minimum Wage To $15

San Francisco will gradually raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour over the course of three years after residents voted in the pay hike Tuesday, the San Francisco Chronicle reports.

The city’s minimum wage will increase to $12.25 per hour in May 2015 and to $13 per hour in July 2016. From there, the wage will go up by one dollar every year until July 2018 when it lands at $15 per hour, bringing the annual pay for a minimum-wage employee working full time to $31,000.

When announcing the measure in June after convening with activists, business representatives and city leaders, San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee (D) said the city's current $10.74 minimum wage "doesn't cut it."

The wage hike is a major step in addressing the city’s extreme economic inequality, triggered in part by the growth of Silicon Valley technology companies and the influx of their high-paid employees pricing out lower-income residents. One study this past summer found that the city’s income disparity was comparable to that of developing countries in Central America and sub-Saharan Africa.

San Francisco is already the city with the highest minimum wage, and passage of the wage increase will help it keep that placement. In the same month the city’s ballot measure was introduced, the Seattle City Council passed an ordinance gradually raising that city's minimum wage to $15, set to start taking effect in April 2015.

live blog

Oldest Newest Share + 11/05/2014 8:27 AM ESTChristie: GOP Wins Show Focus On Leadership

The AP reported Wednesday:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie says Republican victories in governor's races across the country show voters want leaders who will "get things done," rather that fighting over ideology.

Christie, chairman of the Republican Governors Association and a possible 2016 candidate for president, said he was gratified by GOP wins in Democratic-leaning states such as Maryland, Massachusetts and Illinois, as well as victories in key swing states like Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio.

Christie said voters "elect and re-elect governors to get things done."

Christie, who campaigned for GOP candidates across the country, said the winners deserve the credit, not him. He said elections are "always about the candidate."

Christie spoke Wednesday on NBC's "Today" show, ABC's "Good Morning America" and Fox News Channel.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 7:46 AM ESTPresident Obama To Address Midterm Results In Afternoon Press Conference

President Barack Obama will speak to the press Wednesday afternoon to address his party's resounding loss in the 2014 midterm elections, according to White House press secretary Josh Earnest. He is expected to strike a tone of compromise and accountability following a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate and many of the nation's gubernatorial offices.

Obama tried reached out to Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who is widely expected to be the next senate majority leader and who also won re-election Tuesday night, and left a message, CNN reported.

The president's press conference will take place at 2:50 p.m. Eastern time from the East Room of the White House.

Igor Bobic

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 6:57 AM ESTIndictment, Dog Killing, Infidelity Overcome By GOP Candidates

How bad was it for Democrats? Rep. Michael Grimm, a Republican facing a 20-count indictment won in New York and another known for outbursts of rage and killing a beagle, Mike Bost, won a seat in President Barack Obama's home state of Illinois that had been Democratic for 70 years.

Down in Tennessee, Rep. Scott DesJarlais' past infidelities and pushing of abortion on a mistress continued to not matter to voters, who handed him a landslide victory.

There were a couple of bright spots for Democrats, or at least the more moderate crowd. Florida Rep. Steve Southerland lost to Democrat Gwen Graham after holding an all-male fundraiser and joking about Graham in lingerie. And in Louisiana, GOP Rep. Vance McAllister, dubbed the "Kissing Congressman" after he was caught on tape smooching a staffer, finished far back in the field in his contest.

-- Michael McAuliff

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 5:24 AM ESTExpect A Delay In Results

AP not calling these races until the number of outstanding votes can be verified: Va. gov.; Conn. gov.; Colo. gov.; Alaska gov, Senate.

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 5:07 AM ESTAlaska Becomes 4th State To Legalize Recreational Marijuana

In yet another major pushback against the war on drugs, Alaska legalized recreational marijuana on Tuesday, joining Oregon and Washington, D.C. -- both of which legalized cannabis only hours before. Alaska becomes the fourth state in the U.S. to legalize retail marijuana, along with Oregon, Colorado and Washington state.

Voters approved Measure 2, which legalizes the possession, use and sale of recreational marijuana. Adults, age 21 and older, may possess up to 1 ounce of marijuana and grow up to six plants (with no more than three being mature) for personal use. The measure also legalizes the manufacture, sale and possession of marijuana paraphernalia, such as devices used for smoking or storing the plant.

“The folks trying to keep marijuana illegal are relying on the same scare tactics today that they have relied on for decades, but voters just aren’t falling for it anymore," Rob Kampia, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project, said in a statement early Wednesday morning. "The results are particularly encouraging since voter turnout during a midterm election is typically smaller, older, and more conservative. Clearly, support for ending marijuana prohibition spans the political and ideological spectrums."

Read more here.

-- Matt Ferner

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 4:28 AM ESTAh, Politics... Chicago-Style

People are STILL voting on Chicago's north side because of election judge problems @cbschicago #Election2014

— Elizabeth Godvik (@GodvikNewzGirl) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 3:40 AM ESTSarah Palin To GOP: You Didn't Build This

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin took to Facebook last night to issue a hearty congratulations -- and warning -- to her GOP brethren:

Thank you, wise voters! Tonight is a big victory for We the People! Credit is due to the victorious candidates. Your message to President Obama is undeniably received, though he'll try to ignore it.

...

The Democrats got mauled today, deservedly so. To prohibit that from happening to the GOP in 2016, it must learn the lesson from the last time Republicans held the Senate majority. This time they must not retreat, and it's our responsibility to hold them accountable. Will they fight for reform that aligns with the limited government planks of the Republican platform, or will they return to the big government cronyism and status quo favored by the permanent political class? Will they drain the swamp or decide the D.C. cesspool is really just a jacuzzi they can't wait to jump on into and shake us off?

If GOP leadership returns to business as usual, then this majority will be short lived, for We the People say, “once bitten, twice shy.”

Click here to read the full statement.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 2:55 AM ESTAlaska Approves Minimum Wage Increase

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) _ Alaskans have voted to raise the minimum wage.

— Becky Bohrer (@beckybohrerap) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 2:39 AM ESTAlaska Rep. Don Young Projected To Win 22nd Term

The Associated Press is projecting that Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) will win re-election as Alaska's only member of Congress.

--Sam Levine

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 2:36 AM ESTVoter Turnout In The U.S. Is Always Awful.. And This Year Was No Different

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 2:36 AM ESTDCCC Chair Tries To Find A Silver Lining

.@DCCC Chair @RepSteveIsrael: "In short, it could have been worse"

— Josh Lederman (@joshledermanAP) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 2:21 AM ESTMaine's Fourth-Largest City Legalizes Marijuana Possession

Voters in South Portland, Maine, the state's fourth-largest city, approved a measure that removes all legal penalties for possession of up to one ounce of marijuana by adults.

Public consumption and display remain illegal. Maine's largest city, Portland, legalized recreational marijuana last year.

A similar measure in Lewiston, the second-largest Maine city, failed Tuesday night.

-- Matt Ferner

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 2:17 AM ESTCruz Says He Won't Challenge McConnell

Ted Cruz tells CBS that "under no circumstances" would he challenge McConnell for leader. So there's that.

— Susan Davis (@DaviSusan) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 2:15 AM ESTDemocrats Are Not Sugarcoating Tuesday's Election Results

Business Insider's Hunter Walker and Brett Logiurato report:

Democrats knew they were in trouble on election night Tuesday when a Virginia Senate seat that was expected to be a blowout victory began to come in much closer than expected.

"When you're cheering for an eke-out win in Virginia, not going to be a good night," one Democratic strategist told Business Insider.

Read more here.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 2:09 AM ESTHope And Change? Not This Time

Wednesday's front page, NY Daily News: pic.twitter.com/2mChPO9FuU

— Joel Siegel (@joelmsiegel) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 2:08 AM ESTPat Quinn Refuses To Concede Illinois Governor's Race As Rauner Declares Victory

CHICAGO -- Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D) addressed supporters late Tuesday night saying he was not ready to concede the election to challenger Bruce Rauner, despite the fact that the Associated Press and others have called the race for the Republican political newcomer.

“There are a lot of votes still to be counted,” Quinn told supporters. “I don’t believe in throwing in the towel when there are that many votes still to be counted.”

As of late Tuesday night, the splash page for the Quinn For Illinois campaign website said, "We're still waiting for the final results to come in. Thanks for your support."

Meanwhile, Rauner declared victory in a speech late Tuesday, promising a "new direction" for Illinois.

With 99 percent of precincts reporting by midnight Tuesday, only Quinn's Chicago base of Cook County tipped in his favor; Rauner won the influential "collar counties" around Chicago and easily carried downstate counties as well.

Cook County, which encompasses Chicago, was the only county that hadn't reported all its results at the time of Quinn's announcement. Election issues rippled throughout Chicago since the polls opened at 6 a.m. on Tuesday.

Election officials alleged "dirty tricks" were afoot after "malicious" robocalls were sent to election judges as early as Friday. Chicago Board of Election Commissioners spokesman Jim Allen told the Sun-Times that the calls -- which reportedly gave election judges false information about voting requirements and eligibility -- prompted more than 2,000 no-shows on Election Day.

"You're interfering with the orderly conduct of a federal election in our opinion," Allen said.

Fire crews had to break down the door of one polling place located inside a restaurant after the owners failed to show up and open. The polling station was just one of several that stayed open beyond the regular poll closing to accommodate the late start.

Additionally, a new policy that allowed voters to simultaneously register and vote at a polling place contributed to the hundreds of voters still waiting in line when the polls closed at 7 p.m.

-- Kim Bellware

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 1:58 AM ESTDemocratic Gubernatorial Candidates Had A Very, Very Bad Night

HuffPost's Samantha Lachman reports:

Republicans had been predicted to take control of the Senate Tuesday evening, but Democrats hoped to do better in gubernatorial races. That hope was more than disappointed, as even Democrats who had been expected to easily win in Democratic-leaning states were defeated.

In deep-blue Maryland, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown conceded to Republican Larry Hogan. In Massachusetts, Attorney General Martha Coakley suffered a crushing loss. And in Maine, deeply unpopular Republican Gov. Paul LePage beat back a challenge from Democratic Rep. Michael Michaud. In all three of those states,

Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin, chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, didn't even get the requisite 50 percent of the vote needed to win outright in his state.

Read more here.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 1:35 AM ESTMia Love Projected Winner In Utah Congressional Race

Mia Love wins Utah House race, @AP projects http://t.co/x8zvDVQksC #election2014

— HuffPost Politics (@HuffPostPol) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 1:29 AM ESTIn Bed At A Reasonable Hour: Mitch McConnell's Election Night Extravaganza

HuffPost's Eliot Nelson reports:

When the crowd at Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell's election party first learned their candidate had won a sixth term to the U.S. Senate, the reaction was somewhat less than euphoric. A few yelps of excitement erupted here and there, but it seemed as if no one wanted to stand out by making a fuss. It took a few minutes, but the cheers eventually coalesced into something resembling a roar.

It was a decidedly understated bunch. Men in blazers with prep school haircuts had been mingling with demure women sporting bleach-blond helmet hairdos. Many of their children -- themselves seemingly straight out of a Crewcuts catalog -- noshed on complimentary bags of popcorn.

There were flashes of eclecticism, like the two young men toting a sign reading "COME AT ME BRO" featuring a picture of McConnell holding out his arms. Otherwise, the room felt less like a raucous, eardrum-shattering political celebration and more like history's rowdiest Presbyterian church mixer.

Read more here.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 1:27 AM ESTMartha Coakley Not Ready To Concede In Massachusetts

.@marthacoakley campaign says NO CONCESSION TONIGHT

— Sarah Birnbaum (@sbirn) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 1:17 AM ESTRand Paul Taunts Hillary Clinton After GOP Victory

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) wasted no time using the GOP’s new majority in the Senate in the face of potential 2016 presidential rival Hillary Clinton.

Paul posted an entire Facebook album of photos of Clinton campaigning with candidates who lost on Tuesday. Each photo was tagged #HillarysLosers.

On Twitter, Paul continued to attack Clinton, saying that the GOP’s victory on election day was a repudiation of her and President Barack Obama.

Today voters sent a message to Pres. Obama & Hillary Clinton, rejecting their policies & often, their candidates. pic.twitter.com/uQ07JIkwU9

— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) November 5, 2014

You didnt think it could get worse than your book tour? It did. Courtesy of the U.S. voters: https://t.co/kGAZVFq7ze pic.twitter.com/zABFStFM67

— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) November 5, 2014

-- Sam Levine

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 1:16 AM ESTNew Jersey Passes Major Bail Reform

Voters approved Public Question No. 1, a bail reform measure that will reduce the pretrial incarceration of those accused of low-level drug violations. Poorer defendants who can't afford bail, but who are not considered a threat to the community, will now be eligible to be freed while awaiting trial through an alternative release system.

Judges can still deny pretrial release to individuals who pose a clear danger to the community, to repeat offenders and to those who are a probable flight risk.

A recent report from Luminosity and the Drug Policy Alliance found that almost 75 percent of the almost 15,000 individuals in New Jersey's jails are awaiting trial rather than serving out a sentence, and almost half of them remain incarcerated simply because they cannot afford bail. The Drug Policy Alliance backs Public Question No. 1.

-- Matt Ferner

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 1:15 AM ESTElection Results Leave Immigration Advocates Frustrated With Obama

HuffPost's Elise Foley reports:

As of next year, the Senate will be controlled by Republicans, as will the House. The fact that the Senate flipped to Republicans wasn't necessarily surprising to advocates, but it was a frustrating reminder of the president's decision to delay executive action on immigration. That move was meant to protect vulnerable red-state Democrats like Hagan, but most of them either lost anyway or are poised to lose.

In Colorado, executive action could have boosted enthusiasm from Latino voters to the benefit of Udall. Instead, he lost to Republican Cory Gardner, whose immigration stances are far more conservative. The only tangible effect of the delay may have been the deportation of thousands of people who could have been helped by executive action.

Read more here.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 1:15 AM ESTCould The Shellacking Have Been Avoided?

HuffPost's Sam Stein and Ryan Grim report:

Call it a thumping. Call it a shellacking. However you want to describe the 2014 midterm elections, the point remains the same. Democrats took it on the chin Tuesday night, losing the Senate, getting crushed in winnable governors' races, solidifying their minority status in the House for years to come, and stemming the party's ability to continue putting its stamp on the judiciary.

The question is whether it was all avoidable. Democratic strategists will say that the party was dealt a terrible hand, forced to defend too many vulnerable Democrats in red states against too much money. It was, to be sure, a lousy hand. But Democrats never tried to play it.

Candidates across the country shunned the president, with one famously refusing even to say whether she voted for him; they ran from the party's signature accomplishment, national health care reform; and they panicked when the White House considered doing broad-based immigration reform by executive action. Instead, a robust get out the vote operation was supposed to save the party, which rested its hopes in shifting demographic trends and fear of GOP extremists. But when you don't give your voters much to "get out" for, what's left?

"We gave Dems no reason to run," said an adviser to President Barack Obama. "We ran as Dems-lite."

Read more here.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 1:13 AM ESTNew Mexico Voters Approve Ending Criminal Penalties For Marijuana Possession

Voters in New Mexico's Bernalillo and Santa Fe counties overwhelmingly approved the decriminalization of marijuana Tuesday. While they are nonbinding, the questions are aimed at gauging support for such a move.

The county questions com after the Santa Fe City Council's decision in August to decriminalize possession of marijuana and marijuana-related paraphernalia. The city's penalty was reduced to a $25 civil infraction.

-- Matt Ferner

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 1:11 AM ESTWinner: Karl Rove

After the 2012 elections didn't quite go the way the GOP wanted it, Republicans responded by impaneling a team of experts to divine what hard lessons needed to be learn, and come up with a long-term strategy to get back on the winning side. That effort yielded the 100-page "Growth And Opportunity Project" report (more colloquially known as the "RNC Autopsy"). Progress on this venture has been decidedly mixed, at best.

Elsewhere, however, key GOP figures were contemplating a short-term solution, focused on the 2014 midterms. Chief among them was former Bush adviser and Fox News contributor Karl Rove. His vision: the Conservative Victory Project. Its goal: No more Todd Akins! Rove attributed key GOP losses to the fact that too many undisciplined candidates were making it through party primaries and into general elections against Democratic candidates that more seasoned, established GOP candidates could beat.

In an interesting coincidence of timing, Rove's project launched around the same time that Iowa's Democratic senator, Tom Harkin, announced he would be retiring. Subsequently, one of the first people to end up in the crosshairs of Rove's new organization was U.S. Rep. Steve King of Iowa. As The New York Times reported at the time:

Representative Steve King, a six-term Iowa Republican, could be among the earliest targets of the Conservative Victory Project. He said he had not decided whether he would run for the Senate, but the leaders of the project in Washington are not waiting to try to steer him away from the race.

The group’s plans, which were outlined for the first time last week in an interview with [American Crossroads president Steven J.] Law, call for hard-edge campaign tactics, including television advertising, against candidates whom party leaders see as unelectable and a drag on the efforts to win the Senate. Mr. Law cited Iowa as an example and said Republicans could no longer be squeamish about intervening in primary fights.

“We’re concerned about Steve King’s Todd Akin problem,” Mr. Law said. “This is an example of candidate discipline and how it would play in a general election. All of the things he’s said are going to be hung around his neck.”

Iowa ended up with Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst as their standardbearer in that Senate race, and while she's pushed the envelope in the wrong direction at times, she's more or less proved to be a manageable candidate. (Though it arguably helped Ernst that the media, by and large, chose to give her multiple passes.) Over in Colorado, Rove got the sort of candidate he prefers in U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner -- again, a manageable alternative to Ken Buck. Throughout the primary season, Republicans avoided elevating the types of candidates -- your Todd Akins, Sharron Angles, and Richard Mourdocks -- that had previously sunk ambitions.

Tuesday, in the critical Colorado and Iowa races, Gardner and Ernst both prevailed, beating established Democratic candidates thought to have superior ground operations. The GOP may still need to revisit that "RNC autopsy." But in the short term, what Karl Rove wanted to get, he got.

-- Jason Linkins

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 1:08 AM ESTOne Of The Nation's Most Unpopular Governors Wins Re-election

HuffPost's Amanda Terkel reports:

Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) won re-election on Tuesday, despite being one of the most unpopular governors in the country.

LePage won in part for the same reason he did in 2010: A crowded race split Democratic votes, paving the way for his victory.

Read more here.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 1:07 AM ESTMaine Voters: We Want To Bait Bears

For the second time in 10 years, a ban on bear baiting, trapping and hounding was defeated by Maine voters on Tuesday.

According to the Bangor Daily News, the majority of liberal voters (those residing in the more urban Portland area) were for the ban. The rest of the state? Not so much.

The pro-ban campaign was funded almost entirely by the Humane Society of the United States, which hoped to convince voters that hunting the state's black bears using bait, dogs and traps was cruel and unsporting. The opposition claimed these practices were necessary to control the state's population.

With 54 percent of precincts reporting, the no votes were leading, 53 percent to 47 percent.

Click here for more.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 1:03 AM ESTRepublican Projected To Win Re-Election In Maine

Maine Gov. Paul LePage wins re-election http://t.co/l7QJfMRt4n #Elections2014

— HuffPost Politics (@HuffPostPol) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 12:58 AM ESTGOP Senators Begin Jockeying For Leadership Posts

confirmed: Thune will run for majr. conference chairman, per sources close to him. Expects McConnell and Cornyn to win top 2 posts.

— Robert Costa (@costareports) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 12:45 AM ESTBallot Measure To Drug-Test Doctors Fails In California

HuffPost's Lydia O'Connor reports:

Under Prop. 46, physicians could have been tested for drugs at random, within 24 hours of an adverse event suffered by a patient under their care, and when they were accused of possible substance abuse. Had it passed, California would have been the only state requiring random drug tests of doctors, the East Bay Express wrote.

Reform groups criticized that provision as ineffective in decreasing substance abuse, unfairly punitive of doctors and a step backward in ending the war on drugs. In a statement sent to The Huffington Post, the Drug Policy Alliance noted that random drug testing "cannot be used to determine the extent of drug misuse, impairment, frequency or amount of use." Moreover, it said, random drug-testing “often creates incentives to use riskier substances in counterproductive ways.”

Read more here.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 12:41 AM ESTSenate Now Has Enough Votes To Pass Keystone XL Pipeline Approval Bill

HuffPost's Kate Sheppard reports:

The new Senate Republican majority creates an opportunity for likely Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to force a vote on the proposed Keystone XL pipeline he's been waiting years to hold.

By The Huffington Post's count, the new Senate will have at least 61 votes in favor of a measure forcing the pipeline's approval -- a filibuster-proof majority.

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said Tuesday in an appearance on MSNBC that passing a Keystone approval bill would be the second item on the Republican agenda, after a budget. "I actually think the president will sign the bill on the Keystone pipeline because I think the pressure -- he’s going to be boxed in on that, and I think it's going to happen," Priebus said.

Read more here.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 12:28 AM ESTNobody Wants To Run Against Harry Reid For Minority Leader

Politico's Manu Raju reports:

Harry Reid will run for Senate minority leader, and it appears he will have no significant opposition.

Senior Senate Democratic aides said Tuesday night that Reid would have the full support of his entire leadership team, despite his party incurring huge losses on Election Night.

Read more here.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 12:22 AM ESTAmerica, Meet Your New Republican Bosses

HuffPost's Dana Liebelson reports:

Republican victories in Tuesday's Senate elections push out a Democratic old guard and usher in a new crop of hungry GOPers, some just getting their feet wet in politics.

Republicans won control of the Senate partly with the help of newcomers who ousted Democratic incumbents and whipped rivals for seats vacated by retiring liberal lions, whose political service spanned decades that included some of the biggest moments in modern U.S. political history. These departing senators have chaired powerful committees, authored landmark bills, exposed torture in Vietnam, debated CIA interrogation methods, and voted on the Iraq war.

Politically inexperienced Republicans fought to victory by linking Democratic opponents with President Barack Obama and by emphasizing business or military experience, rather than Washington savvy. A Republican outsider also snagged a seat held by a retiring Republican heavyweight: Businessman David Perdue, who will take the seat of departing Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.).

Read more here.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 12:20 AM ESTPat Quinn Wants Every Vote Counted In Illinois Gubernatorial Race

Quinn says "They're entitled to make sure that the election authorities in every single county, counts the votes."

— natasha korecki (@natashakorecki) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 12:19 AM ESTCalifornia Votes To Imprison Fewer People

HuffPost's Matt Sledge reports:

California approved a major shift against mass incarceration on Tuesday in a vote that could lead to the release of thousands of state prisoners.

Nonviolent felonies like shoplifting and drug possession will be downgraded to misdemeanors under the ballot measure, Proposition 47. As many as 10,000 people could be eligible for early release from state prisons, and it's expected that courts will annually dispense around 40,000 fewer felony convictions.

Read more here.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 12:15 AM ESTSam Brownback Projected To Win Re-Election In Kansas Gubernatorial Election

Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback wins re-election, @AP projects http://t.co/ofVzXwtzru #Election2014

— HuffPost Politics (@HuffPostPol) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 12:11 AM EST2016 Dem Contender Will Have To Explain Loss Of Historically Blue State

How does Martin O'Malley explain losing Maryland to the GOP on the 2016 trail?

— Scott Conroy (@RealClearScott) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 12:10 AM ESTMartha Coakley Loses Another Election In Massachusetts

Charlie Baker defeats Martha Coakley in Massachusetts governor's race, Fox and ABC project http://t.co/ofVzXwtzru #Election2014

— HuffPost Politics (@HuffPostPol) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 12:08 AM ESTDavid Axelrod Says Returns Show A Wave Election

Said on @NBCNews earlier that this was not a wave. But the returns since then say otherwise.

— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 12:07 AM ESTRepublican Larry Hogan Projected To Win Maryland Gubernatorial Race

BREAKING: GOP Larry Hogan wins election as governor of Maryland. @AP race call at 12:05 a.m. EST. #Election2014 #APracecall

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/05/2014 12:04 AM ESTVermont Legislators Will Select Governor

BREAKING: Vermont legislature will pick governor after no candidate wins majority.

— The Associated Press (@AP) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/04/2014 11:56 PM ESTKay Hagan Announces Concession

Hagan: I just called Speaker Tillis to congratulate him pic.twitter.com/InaRTrM2dF

— W.J. Lowery (@WesleyLowery) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/04/2014 11:56 PM ESTAnti-Abortion Ballot Measure Passes In Tennessee

HuffPost's Laura Bassett reports:

Tennessee voters on Tuesday approved a controversial ballot measure that ensures the state constitution does not protect a woman's right to abortion under any circumstances. Nearly 54 percent of voters approved the measure, with 46 percent opposed, according to Politico.

Amendment 1 overrides the Tennessee Supreme Court's 2000 decision to block a 36-hour mandatory waiting period before abortions. The court had ruled the state constitution protects women's right to privacy, which includes the right to have an abortion.

Read more here.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/04/2014 11:55 PM ESTMitch McConnell Claims To Admire Collegial Leaders, But Can He Be One?

HuffPost's Howard Fineman reports:

In his Capitol Hill office, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) proudly displays an oil painting of his state’s most famous senator, Henry Clay, “The Great Pacificator” and unifying statesman of 19th century America. But as the 72-year-old McConnell prepares to take over as Senate majority leader, a job he’s spent decades plotting to win, it’s not clear whether he can be -- or wants to be -- another Clay.

McConnell has said recently that the past majority leaders he most admires are two Democrats -- Mike Mansfield of Montana, who moved most of President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society legislation, and George Mitchell of Maine, who was noted for his diplomatic and collegial style.

On Election Day, McConnell staffers referred me to a speech their boss had made in which he vowed to run a more bipartisan and consultative Senate than now exists. He would be Clay, Mansfield and Mitchell all rolled into one.

Many of his critics scoff at the notion.

Read more here.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/04/2014 11:54 PM ESTAnother Kennedy Enters Politics

NECN reports:

Ted Kennedy Jr. has won his first political race and a seat in the Connecticut state Senate.

Kennedy is the 53-year-old son of the late U.S. senator and a nephew of President John F. Kennedy. He beat Republican Bruce Wilson Jr. on Tuesday for an open seat in a district along Connecticut's shoreline.

Kennedy had been mentioned in 2012 as a possible Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in his family's home state of Massachusetts. But he decided to seek office in Connecticut's 12th District, where he has lived for about 20 years.

Read more here.

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/04/2014 11:53 PM ESTMississippi Now Outlier On Political Progress For Women

Now there's only one state that's never elected a woman to federal office or the governorship: Mississippi. #2014

— Kasie Hunt (@kasie) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/04/2014 11:48 PM ESTTed Cruz Won't Commit To Mitch McConnell As Majority Leader

Ted Cruz won’t say whether he’ll support McConnell as Majority Leader

— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) November 5, 2014

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/04/2014 11:48 PM ESTOregon Becomes Third State To Legalize Recreational Marijuana

The reformation of marijuana laws across the nation took another step forward Tuesday when voters in Oregon approved a measure to legalize the drug for recreational use.

Voters passed Measure 91, which legalizes the possession, use and sale of recreational marijuana for adults 21 and over, according to The Oregonian, NORML and a Fox affiliate in the state. Oregon becomes the third state in the nation to end the prohibition on cannabis.

"People are no longer being fooled by the anti-marijuana propaganda that they’ve been hearing their entire lives," said Mason Tvert, communications director for the Marijuana Policy Project.

“This is another example of voters standing up and saying, ‘Enough is enough.’ Marijuana prohibition has been a massive failure and voters are ready to move on. This is a particularly impressive victory because voter turnout for midterm elections is typically smaller, older, and more conservative. Clearly, support for ending marijuana prohibition spans all age groups and the ideological spectrum."

Read more here.

-- Matt Ferner

Share this: Tweet Share tumblr Share + 11/04/2014 11:46 PM ESTScott Brown Concedes In New Hampshire Senate Race

Scott Brown concedes http://t.co/p9A9YAaDcb #Election2014

— HuffPost Politics (@HuffPostPol) November 5, 2014

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Weed Entrepreneurs In Oregon And Alaska Celebrate Legalization

On Tuesday, marijuana prohibition suffered another defeat.

Voters in Washington, D.C., Oregon and Alaska followed Colorado and Washington in voting to legalize cannabis for recreational use. The historic votes signal victories for pro-legalization advocates hoping to bring legal cannabis to even more states in 2016.

Cannabis entrepreneurs in Oregon and Alaska, which are slated to open retail pot shops in coming years, say they are thrilled. (D.C.'s measure did not legalize the sale of marijuana.)

"I'm very excited. I've been medicating with marijuana since I was 21 years old," said Mario Mamone, who owns the medical marijuana dispensary Maritime Cafe in Clackamus County, Oregon, and who suffers from back spasms dating to the late 1960s when he was a soldier in Vietnam.

"I've always been afraid I'd be arrested and thrown in jail. But this lifts the stigma," he said.

But it's not all sunshine and roses for the marijuana industry that's developing in the Pacific Northwest. Cannabis entrepreneurs say the way legal weed is being rolled out by state governments can be problematic. Their concerns add to the growing pains experienced by advocates and regulators in trying to figure out the best way to safely regulate the fledgling industry.

For example, Oregon's historic vote on Tuesday won't do much to get Mamone's dispensary back in business. Maritime Cafe, which is located a few miles from downtown Portland and began providing Oregon residents with medical weed in 2011, was forced to close earlier this year when Clackamus County enacted a moratorium on cannabis sales.

"It's put us through some hardship," said Mamone. "We signed a lease on a new, bigger space next door [to our current location] before the moratorium, because we had no idea it was coming."

Mamone said he's been paying his $3,100-a-month rent plus all his bills every month, but the business "hasn't had any revenue since May."

He's been talking to county officials to try to lift the moratorium as soon as possible -- before the scheduled April 2015 end date -- but his business may have to remain shuttered until then.

Meanwhile in Portland, just a few miles away, medical weed is already being sold freely by dozens of medical dispensaries. Under the new law, those dispensaries will be eligible for a license to sell retail pot.

But not all of them are interested in doing that. Sally Bishop, the owner of Green Goddess Remedies, a shop that sells marijuana buds, edibles and THC concentrates, isn't sure she wants to branch out into the retail market, even though it could be lucrative for her and her family.

That's because she fears the retail weed industry will lead to lower-quality pot.

Green Goddess Remedies, in Portland, Oregon. (Photo: Sally Bishop)

"Retail changes the vibe. It becomes mass consumption. It turns into, like, Budweiser beer," said Bishop, a 49-year-old mother of two. "Whereas, here on the medical marijuana side of things, we have more of a microbrew mentality. Our growers take a lot of pride in what they do."

Oregon's new law will allow anyone 21 and older to possess up to 1 ounce of weed in a public place or 8 ounces at home. But there won't be recreational pot shops in Oregon for another couple of years. The state first must figure out how the system will be regulated and begin the process of issuing licenses to eligible entrepreneurs.

Unlike Washington, Oregon already had a fairly robust medical marijuana system in place when it legalized recreational weed. The state decriminalized pot back in the '70s and legalized it for medical use in 1998. Still, for years, medical patients had to grow their own weed (or have a caregiver grow it for them). Actual medical dispensaries weren't fully authorized to do business until this year.

Since Oregon already has a medical pot system in place -- and because taxes in Oregon will be lower than they currently are in Washington -- retail pot in Oregon is projected to be substantially cheaper than in neighboring Washington. In Oregon, it's predicted to be about $145 per ounce, while in Washington it gets sold for about $20 a gram, which works out to be over $500 per ounce.

In Alaska, things are different. Although the state legalized medical marijuana the same year Oregon did -- 1998 -- it never set up a dispensary system, forcing people to make arrangements to grow their own weed or obtain it on the black market.

As a result, Alaska may face some of the same difficulties that Washington has had in trying to create a dispensary system from scratch.

But pot entrepreneurs in the Last Frontier are still excited. "This is great for Alaska and great for America," said Michael Smith, who owns The Healing Center Medical Clinic in Anchorage, which doesn't sell medical marijuana but instead helps people obtain state-issued cards that let them grow their own.

Smith, 49, says he will definitely be applying for a state license to sell retail weed, but he won't be doing it in Anchorage, where he said he's heard talk of a possible moratorium on pot sales.

"You never know what politicians might do, what kind of pressure they could get from their constituencies," he said. "I mean, the vote here in Alaska was only 52 to 48 [percent], so it was a very close call. There's still a large demographic that could push against this."

Alaska's initiative doesn't allow local governments to criminalize marijuana, but it does allow them to ban the commercial industry.

So Smith bought a space in rural Alaska -- in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley, to be precise -- where he plans to grow and sell recreational weed if he wins a license from the state. He said he's less afraid of a moratorium happening there.

"It's a little more liberal there than in Anchorage," he said. "They have a history up there of growing some well-known strains [of cannabis]. I mean, they've been growing Matanuska Thunderfuck since the '70s. So I think people up there are really going to come out to take advantage of the end of prohibition. And I wish everyone well, I really do."

Target Is Closing As Many Stores As It Opened Last Year

Target might have Alex, but the teen heartthrob isn't enough to save some of the company's stores from getting the ax.

The retail giant said Tuesday that it plans to shutter 11 underperforming stores by next February, about six months after it closed eight other locations. That brings the total number of closures to 19 this year -- as many locations as the company opened last year, according to its annual report.

“The decision to close a Target store is only made after careful consideration of the long-term financial performance of a particular location,” the company said in a statement. “All eligible store team members are being offered the option to transfer to other Target stores.”

Employees who choose not to transfer will receive severance payments, the statement said. The stores, closing by Feb. 1, 2015, include locations scattered throughout the South and Midwest. Evan Lapiska, a Target spokesman, said each store currently employs roughly 100 workers.

Target has struggled over the past year in the wake of a massive breach of customer data, which cost its chief executive his job. The company is also facing trouble as big-box retailers lose ground with shoppers to smaller stores and e-commerce sites.

In response, Target began testing smaller, urban express stores and beefed up its digital team in July. In this case, the company appears to be trimming fat as part of its turnaround strategy.

Here’s a full list of stores closing:

Lithonia, Georgia
8109 Mall Parkway
Lithonia, Ga.

Castleton, Indiana
8448 Center Run Drive
Indianapolis, Ind.

Monroe, Michigan
2121 N. Monroe St.
Monroe, Mich.

Clinton, Iowa
2900 S. 25th St.
Clinton, Iowa

Wichita East, Kansas
301 S. Towne East Mall Drive
Wichita, Kan.

Northland, Michigan
21400 Northwestern Highway
Southfield, Mich.

McHenry, Illinois
1860 N. Richmond Road
McHenry, Ill

Bay City, Michigan
4135 Wilder Road
Bay City, Mich.

Austin, Minnesota
1701 18th Ave. N.W.
Austin, Minn.

Calumet City, Illinois
1717 E. West Road
Calumet City, Ill.

Carrolton, Texas
2620 N. Josey Lane
Carrollton, Texas

This story has been updated with a comment from Target.